摘自 巴菲特給股東的信 - 充滿精辟觀點的一小段

近日看巴菲特給股東的信 (最新近2022年度), 發現一段十分精辟的投資觀點, 在此記錄下來並寫點感想。

Thus began our journey to 2023, a bumpy road involving a combination of continuous savings by our owners (that is, by their retaining earnings), the power of compounding, our avoidance of major mistakes and – most important of all – the American Tailwind. America would have done fine without Berkshire. The reverse is not true.

Continuous savings by our owners - 長期堅持儲蓄: 巴郡股東不求股息, 長期而言, 每一元利潤也放進投資當中 (retained earnings)。

The power of compounding - 複利: 這個不用多說。儲蓄加複利, 就是建立財富的力量。

Avoidance of major mistakes - 不要犯大錯: 事實上, 巴菲特也會犯錯, 正如他在這封信中提及大多數投資表現平庸, 很多時都是由少數幾隻關鍵投資, 為組合帶來巨大貢獻。

At this point, a report card from me is appropriate: In 58 years of Berkshire management, most of my capital-allocation decisions have been no better than so-so. In some cases, also, bad moves by me have been rescued by very large doses of luck. (Remember our escapes from near-disasters at USAir and Salomon? I certainly do.)

Our satisfactory results have been the product of about a dozen truly good decisions – that would be about one every five years – and a sometimes-forgotten advantage that favors long-term investors such as Berkshire...

有關巴菲特提及不要犯大錯這一點, 巴黎兄在 "在股市輸的都是自己的問題" (2022年11月15日) 中, 評論巴菲特及芒格的決策很到位, 有興趣的讀者可找尋該篇blog文一讀。

細心想, 其實不要犯大錯這一點適用於其他投資及理財學派的, 亦包括投資以外。

The ... Tailwind - "順風", 或可理解作順勢, 不必然是圖表的勢, 亦包括行業趨勢, 國家趨勢, 全球發展趨勢, 記得巴菲特以前說過, 如果他不在美國, 他在投資方面不可能有這成就, 其實他的投資固之然是以生意角度選擇公司, 但還是top-down之賜, 只不過在美國讀者群中, 這個因素是隠含的, 大家會看不到他所說的most important of all。(按: 不是指只有美國才有這種機會, 但投資需要良好的土壤及環境, 這是很重要前提, 否則選股會辛苦或刁鑽一點。)

短短一段, 充滿睿智, 在此分享。