兩組美國通脹預期

昨天看到一則有關美國通脹預期的新聞, 在3月份美國消費者預期5至10年後的通脹達到3.9%, 是1991年以來的高位:

Americans sour on economy as inflation expectations hit highest level since 1991

Pessimism over the inflation outlook soared again in March as one year-inflation expectations jumped to 4.9% from 4.3% the month prior. Just two months ago, consumers had only expected inflation of 3.3% over the next year.

Long-run inflation expectations, which track expectations over the next five to 10 years, climbed, too, hitting 3.9% in March, up from 3.4% in February. This marks the highest level of long-term inflation expectations since 1991. Also in the release, the expected change in unemployment hit its lowest level since the Great Financial Crisis.

附圖如下:

然而, 我在之前文章有提及過的美國遠期通脹預期數字 (5-year 5-year forward inflation expectation rate), 卻往反方向, 即稍微往下走:

這兩組數據皆是預期5至10年後的通脹水平, 上面一組是大學的定期統計調查, 而下面一組則是市場交易價格所推斷的通脹數字 (技術上需要5年及10年的正常國債及抗通脹債作計算)。

以上的分歧十分有趣, 大家試想想發生甚麼事。