2022年7月2日星期六

中央銀行的使命

近日有很多人討論各地中央銀行, 會否因為經濟差而放鬆銀根? 對於這點, 我們需要看看中央銀行本身就貨幣政策方面的使命。以下從三間最大央行 (G3)的網頁, 找出他們的貨幣政策使命:

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聯儲局: https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed.htm

  • [The Federal Reserve] conducts the nation’s monetary policy to promote maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates in the U.S. economy;
  • 有鑑於聯儲局本身使命有最大化就業保持温和 (穩定?)的長期利率, 即上面紅色字眼, 鮑叔 (J. Powell) 最近在很多場合有如此補充: Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell stressed in two days of congressional testimony that the Fed's commitment to tame inflation is "unconditional." 

歐洲央行: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/ecb/html/index.en.html

  • Here at the European Central Bank (ECB), we work to keep prices stable in the euro area. We do this so that you will be able to buy as much with your money tomorrow as you can today.

日本央行: https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outline/index.htm/

  • The Bank of Japan, as the central bank of Japan, decides and implements monetary policy with the aim of maintaining price stability.
  • Price stability is important because it provides the foundation for the nation's economic activity.

最後, 順帶看看國際結算銀行(Bank for International Settlements, BIS)出了一篇經濟年度報告論文 (https://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2022e2.htm, 這是非常長文, 建議有技巧地快睇), 講及通脹與貨幣政策的重要性, 留意結論:

  • The analysis highlights major differences between low- and high-inflation regimes and hence the criticality of transitions.
  • A low-inflation regime has significant self-stabilising properties. What is measured as inflation is, in large part, the reflection of relative or sector-specific price changes that tend to have a transitory impact on the inflation level. In such an environment, inflation has little effect on the wage and price formation as it loses significance as a factor influencing behaviour. Central bank credibility is instrumental in hardwiring the regime and increasing its robustness.
  • High-inflation regimes do not have such self-stabilising properties. Inflation becomes a focal point for agents' behaviour and wage-price formation becomes more sensitive to relative price shocks. Higher inflation, in turn, induces changes in more structural features of wage formation, such as indexation and centralised wage bargaining, which help entrench the regime. It also undermines central bank credibility, further unmooring the inflation process. The experience with the oil price shocks of the 1970s illustrates the mechanisms at work. ...
  • The under the hood perspective sheds light on how monetary policy can best secure a low-inflation regime. The perspective underscores the importance of navigating the transitions and the associated difficulties. Transitioning back from a high-inflation regime can be very costly once it becomes entrenched. All this puts a premium on a timely and firm response. Central banks fully understand that the long-term benefits far outweigh any short-term costs. And that credibility is too precious an asset to be put at risk.

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不知大家怎樣看待中央銀行這些規條?😏 都想打聽下。

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